Canadian Crude Output to Double by 2030 on Oil Sands Growth

Canada’s crude output will more than double to 6.7 million barrels a day by 2030, with almost all the growth coming from Alberta’s oil sands, an industry group representing the country’s petroleum producers said.

Oil sands production will rise to 5.2 million barrels a day by 2030 from 1.8 million currently, the Canadian Association of Oil Producers said in its 2013 annual forecast. More transportation such as pipelines and rail is needed to move the rising output, the group said.

“Given the growing production outlook, the need to reach new markets is a top priority for Canadian oil producers,” CAPP said in the report. “Western Canadian supplies are essentially landlocked and will need additional transportation infrastructure to bring this growing oil supply to markets.”

Canada holds the world’s third-largest oil reserves, behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and is the sixth-largest oil producer in the world, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The majority of the reserves are held in the oil sands in northern Alberta.

The CAPP forecast for 2030 increased by 500,000 barrels a day from last year’s, due to projections of more growth from oil sands and shale oil. More production from oil-sands steam-injection projects offset a decline in mining projects.

Markets for Canada’s growing heavy oil production will primarily be found in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, with the opportunity for new markets in Asia, CAPP said. Some output can also displace overseas oil imports at refineries in Quebec and on the U.S. West Coast, the organization said.

U.S. Market

By 2020, Canadian producers could potentially supply an extra 1 million barrels a day to the U.S. Gulf Coast and an additional 460,000 barrels a day to the U.S. Midwest due to crude conversion projects at refineries there, CAPP said.

Some 700,000 barrels a day of crude imports at plants in Quebec and Atlantic Canada could also be displaced by growing domestic supplies, CAPP said, and declining overseas sources currently supplying Washington state and California could also be replaced by Canadian supplies.

Canada could also tap into increasing oil demand in Asia, including China and India, CAPP said. Canadian regulators are reviewing plans for Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway pipeline and Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Trans Mountain expansion, both of which would send Alberta crude to British Columbia for shipment to Asia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Edward Welsch in Calgary at ewelsch1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net

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