U.K. Exit From EU May Really Happen

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Visiting the U.K. over the past week,I realized for the first time that Britain might actually leavethe European Union. Of course, it has talked about thiseventuality, on and off, almost since it joined -- but for yearsthe constant whining could be dismissed as so much backgroundnoise. Things have changed. Attitudes are hardening, and bypromising an “in or out” referendum on EU membership after thenext election, Prime Minister David Cameron may have put thecountry on a course that will force it to choose.

If the referendum Cameron promises for 2017 were put tovoters tomorrow, the U.K. would probably leave. According topolling by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, only 26 percent ofBritons think Europe’s economic integration has helped theeconomy, and only 43 percent have a favorable opinion of the EU.Other recent polls show steady (though mostly slender)majorities in favor of exit.