Alcoa No Better Than Coin Flip as Bellwether Status Fades
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Alcoa Inc., the first Dow Jones Industrial Average member to report results each quarter, is losing its accuracy as a bellwether for the U.S. stock market.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has usually followed Alcoa’s lead since 2002, rising 2.5 percent in quarters when the aluminum producer beat the market after earnings, less when it didn’t. That relationship has broken down since 2011, when the S&P 500 posted even bigger gains, about 3 percent, when Alcoa’s results hurt its stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.