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Dollar May Reach 2009 High Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

The dollar is likely to trade at about 90 yen in the coming weeks before resuming its climb toward 99.74, Forecast Pte said, citing trading patterns. That would be the highest level since May 2009.

The dollar is looking “overbought” based on its 14-day relative strength index versus the yen, according to Pak Lai Ng, a Singapore-based technical analyst at Forecast. The RSI was at 65 today, near the 70 level some analysts see as a sign the asset’s price may reverse direction after rising too rapidly. “The longer-term trend is still up for dollar-yen, but it has to correct some of the up move first,” he said.

The dollar slid 0.1 percent to 93.90 yen as of 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday. It has strengthened 15 percent versus the Japanese currency in the past three months and touched 94.46 yen on Feb. 11, the highest since May 2010. The last time the greenback traded at 99.74 was on May 7, 2009.

Should the U.S. currency rise above the recent high of 94.46 yen, it will probably climb toward 99.74, the 50 percent retracement from its drop from the June 2007 high of 124.14 to the post World War II record low of 75.35 reached in October 2011 on the Fibonacci chart, Ng said.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a new high or a low.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where analysts anticipate orders to buy may be clustered.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at mishikawa9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net

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