Treasuries Gain on Safety Demand Before First Auctions

Treasuries rose on demand for the safest securities before three sales of notes and bonds totaling $66 billion this week, starting with a $32 billion three-year debt auction today.

Yields on the benchmark 10-year bond fell even after the French government called speculation of a downgrade to the nation’s credit rating “unfounded.” The three-year notes scheduled for sale today yielded 0.39 percent in pre-auction trading, compared with a record low 0.327 percent at the previous auction on Dec. 11.

“It’s a flight to safety -- that’s the rumor, that’s what’s driving the market right now,” said Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) in New York, one of 21 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve.

Benchmark 10-year note yields fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.87 percent as of 11:21 a.m. New York time, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 1.625 percent security maturing in November 2022 rose 9/32, or $2.81 per $1,000 face value, to 97 27/32. Yields on the 30-year bond fell four basis points to 3.06 percent.

The current three-year yield fell one basis point to 0.37 percent after increasing to 0.42 percent on Jan. 4, the most since Oct. 26.

Debt Auctions

At last month’s sale of three-year notes, bidders that buy directly from the Treasury purchased a record 24.8 percent of the notes, compared with 12.5 percent at the previous 10 sales.

“People are more willing to buy given the levels and the fact that the Fed is not selling up there anymore,” said Thomas Roth, senior Treasury trader in New York at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. “Today’s auction will go fine.”

The Fed concluded at year-end its Operation Twist program of selling shorter-term securities and purchasing longer-term government debt, thus reducing the available supply of shorter- term debt.

The U.S. plans to sell $21 billion of 10-year notes tomorrow and $13 billion of 30-year bonds on Jan. 10. The amounts are unchanged from the last time the government issued this combination of securities in December.

The central bank purchased $3.71 billion of Treasuries due from October 2018 to December 2019 today, according to the Fed Bank of New York website.

Treasuries are off to their worst start to a year since 2009, handing investors a 0.7 percent loss in 2013 as of yesterday, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. It was the biggest decline for a first week since the Treasury was preparing to ramp up debt sales four years ago as it tried to snap a recession.

Statutory Limit

Bonds slid last week after “several” Fed officials said it would “probably be appropriate to slow or stop purchases well before the end of 2013,” according to minutes of their Dec. 11-12 meeting. The Fed said in December that it plans to buy $45 billion of Treasuries a month in addition to $40 billion per month of mortgage-debt purchases begun in September.

While Congress last week passed budget measures that averted most of more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and federal spending cuts that were scheduled to start this year, U.S. lawmakers will address the issue of deficit reduction as they negotiate raising the debt ceiling.

The U.S. reached the statutory limit of $16.4 trillion on Dec. 31, and the Treasury began using extraordinary measures to finance the government. It will exhaust that avenue as soon as the middle of February, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Bullish Bets

“A good resolution on fiscal issues will give a massive boost to the economy, which is improving slowly but surely,” said Ciaran O’Hagan, head of European rates strategy at Societe Generale SA in Paris. “Our forecast of 2.35 percent for 10-year Treasuries by the end of the year is quite moderate, especially given the recent move.”

Investors in Treasuries raised bullish bets in the week ending yesterday and cut shorts, according to a survey by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The proportion of net longs was at four percentage points in the week ending yesterday, reversing from a net short of six percentage points in the week ending Dec. 17.

Investors raised neutral bets to 66 percent from 64 percent, the survey reported.

The percent of outright longs rose to 19 percent, from 15 percent in the week ending Dec. 17, the survey said, while the percent of outright shorts, or bets the securities will fall in value, dropped to 15 percent from 21 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanne Walker in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

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