Romney-Biden May Be Winning Ticket in Unlikely Voting Tie

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) – Bloomberg Political Analyst Matthew Dowd and UBS chief U.S. equity strategist Jonathan Golub discuss the impact of the October jobs report and recent economic data on the presidential election and how the markets view the race. They speak on Bloomberg Television’s “In The Loop.”

On Jan. 20, Mitt Romney takes the presidential oath of office. Standing close by is his new vice president, Joe Biden.

Highly unlikely though that outcome may be, it’s possible under the complex U.S. system for selecting presidents. A 269- 269 tie between Romney and Barack Obama in the Electoral College, the body set up to formally choose the president, would trigger fallback mechanisms that might leave the country in a constitutional and political tempest.

Under the Constitution’s 12th Amendment, a tie would bump the choice to the newly elected Congress. The House of Representatives, which probably will remain in Republican hands, would choose the president, and the Senate, likely to remain controlled by Democrats, would select the vice president.

“If you stipulate that they act according to partisan interests, they would pick Biden even if the House has picked Romney,” said Edward Foley, director of the election law program at Ohio State University’s Moritz College of Law in Columbus.

A Romney-Biden administration is perhaps the oddest potential outcome to what could be a complicated finish to the presidential election.

The U.S. system is a maze under the best of circumstances. Even as voters express a preference for a candidate when they submit their ballots, they are actually selecting 538 electors, who are allocated in most jurisdictions, though not all, on a statewide basis.

Photographer: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

A supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore holds up a sign in this Nov. 12 2000 file photo, while standing outside the Palm Beach county Governmental Center as he expresses his point of view about the current dispute on the vote count in the state of Florida. Close

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Photographer: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

A supporter of Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore holds up a sign in this Nov. 12 2000 file photo, while standing outside the Palm Beach county Governmental Center as he expresses his point of view about the current dispute on the vote count in the state of Florida.

Majority Needed

Those 538 electors then cast ballots in the Electoral College, with the top vote-getter becoming president -- unless the leader fails to get a majority.

In that case, the fallback mechanisms kick in. The new House would choose the president, voting by state delegations, with a candidate needing 26 states to win. Right now, Republicans control 33 House delegations and Democrats 14, with three states split evenly.

The Senate, voting as individuals, would select the vice president. Counting the two independents who caucus with them, Democrats now hold a 53-47 edge in that body.

Slideshow: Battle for the Presidency ... of Ohio?

The constitutional framers set up the system, which the 12th Amendment modified in 1804, in anticipation that the House would frequently, perhaps even usually, make the final selection for president.

Not Since 1824

Instead, the fallback system hasn’t kicked in since 1824, when Andrew Jackson was the top vote-getter among four candidates in the Electoral College, leading John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay and William Crawford.

In the House, Clay threw his support to Adams, securing his election as the country’s sixth president. Soon thereafter, Adams named Clay to be his secretary of state, an arrangement Jackson condemned as a “corrupt bargain.” Four years later, Jackson won a rematch, ousting Adams.

The potential exists for similar intrigue in 2012.

Obama and Romney could reach a 269-269 deadlock in any of several ways. One possibility is that Obama could win Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. A second scenario would require Romney to win Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, and Obama to capture Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

‘Awfully Close’

The possibilities would multiply should either Nebraska or Maine produce a mixed result. Both states award some of their electoral votes by congressional district, eschewing the winner- take-all format used in the other 48 states and the District of Columbia.

“This is going to be an awfully close outcome, so a 269- 269 tie is certainly possible but very unlikely,” said Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Complicating matters is that the allocation of electors may not be clear for days. A race close enough to produce an Electoral College deadlock would probably mean that the results in at least one state will be close enough for the losing side to contest, Foley says.

That could involve a delay until provisional and absentee ballots are counted, or it could mean a recount, Foley said. A candidate who must win a recount to achieve a tie might face pressure to concede, particularly if he lost the nationwide popular vote, Foley says.

“The popular vote would really weigh heavily, especially in the context in which one of the candidates hasn’t gotten to 269 and needs to win a recount,” Foley said.

Going Rogue

And then there are the electors, the little-known figures who will meet in their respective states on Dec. 17 and cast their votes in the Electoral College. The vast majority, and perhaps all, will be party loyalists who will vote for the candidate selected by their state’s voters.

Still, electors sometimes go rogue -- as they have nine times over the past 16 elections, according to Robert Alexander, a political science professor at Ohio Northern University.

Even when the vote is a relative landslide, electors are regularly subjected to heavy lobbying to use their vote to make a statement, said Alexander, who has written a book on the Electoral College based on surveys of electors since 2000. More than 80 percent of electors were lobbied in 2008, he said.

“They were lobbied in an election that wasn’t close,” Alexander said.

‘Intense Lobbying’

Should the 2012 vote produce a 269-269 split, the electors would face “an intense lobbying campaign,” he said. “Can’t you imagine the amount of pressure that would be placed on these human beings to try to resolve the potential Romney-Biden administration before it came to that?”

Only about 30 states bind electors, either through state law or party-enforced pledges, Alexander said. In 2000, Barbara Lett-Simmons, a District of Columbia elector expected to vote for Democrat Al Gore, abstained to protest her city’s lack of voting representation in Congress. Even though the nation’s capital has no voting representative in Congress, it has three Electoral College votes.

Ultimately, it may fall to the nation’s political leaders to prevent a Romney-Biden administration. Just as past presidential election disputes have been resolved with an act of statesmanship, Democrats may concede on the vice presidency if they conclude they can’t stop Romney from becoming president.

“Some of them might want to go down in history as saying the vice presidency isn’t worth fighting for, for party reasons,” Foley said, “and we really ought to do the right thing for the sake of the country.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Stohr in Washington at gstohr@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steven Komarow at skomarow1@bloomberg.net

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