Long-Term Oil-Price Forecasting Is Highly Uncertain, IEA Says

Forecasting oil prices beyond a year is “highly uncertain” because of the need for more transparent data from suppliers and consumers, according to the International Energy Agency

“Forecasts based on futures prices, surveys of analyst forecasts, forecasts based on a variety of simple time series regressions and other common forecasting techniques are generally inferior to the random-walk forecast, which implies that the best forecast of crude oil spot prices is simply the current price of oil,” the Paris-based IEA said today in its monthly Oil Market Report.

Recent advances in modeling and forecasting have improved the accuracy of price predictions, with success relying on timely and accurate data on oil markets, the IEA said.

The agency noted “an urgent and growing need” for better information on oil production, consumption and inventories from all nations, particularly from those outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rupert Rowling in London at rrowling@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephen Voss at sev@bloomberg.net

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