Aussie Dollar May Fall to Lowest Since June: Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar may drop over the next month to the lowest level since June after it breached a key support level, Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

The so-called Aussie yesterday fell below its 200-day moving average of $1.0315 and is poised for further losses, according to Takuya Kawabata, a researcher at, a unit of Japan’s largest currency-margin company. The currency will probably slide further if it drops below $1.0219, the 38.2 percent retracement on a Fibonacci chart of its climb from 95.82 U.S. cents on June 1 to $1.0613 on Aug. 9, Kawabata said. He said it may fall as low as $1.0098, the 50 percent retracement and a level unseen since June 29.

The Australian dollar “can probably extend losses toward the next level of retracement” if it breaks below $1.0219, Kawabata said. “It shouldn’t take too long for the Aussie to test $1.009, probably within a month.”

The Aussie dollar fetched $1.0291 as of 11 a.m. in Sydney from $1.0289 yesterday, when it touched $1.0277, the lowest since July 25. The currency is poised for a 1.1 percent drop this week and a 2 percent decline this month.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages from previous highs or lows.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mariko Ishikawa in Tokyo at;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at

Press spacebar to pause and continue. Press esc to stop.

Bloomberg reserves the right to remove comments but is under no obligation to do so, or to explain individual moderation decisions.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.