China Doubles Estimate of Third-Quarter Capital Account Gap
China’s foreign-currency regulator nearly doubled its estimate of the country’s third-quarter capital and financial account surplus to $66.2 billion from an earlier estimates issued in November.
The revision was posted to the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange today in a statement that also included a reduction in the current account surplus estimate for the third quarter. The agency didn’t provide an explanation for the changes.
“The large revision shows that capital-inflow pressure was bigger than initially anticipated,” said Yao Wei, a Hong Kong- based economist for Societe Generale SA. “That may be reversed this year with capital outflows more likely to become a concern as investors may pull money out of the country due to worries about slowing economic growth.”
The growing use of financial products such as yuan trade settlement and yuan-denominated foreign investment may also have contributed to the upward revision, Yao said.
A breakdown of China’s capital account surplus in the third quarter showed net direct investment inflows were revised down to $28.7 billion from previous reading of $35.9 billion. A further $9.9 billion came from “net securities investment” and $26.2 billion from “other net investment inflows,” items that were not given in November’s preliminary estimates.
The estimate of China’s third-quarter current account surplus, which includes the goods and services trade, was cut to $53.4 billion from a preliminary reading of $57.8 billion, today’s data showed. The excess included $85.3 billion for trade in goods, and a $20.3 billion deficit for trade in services, the currency regulator said.
--Zheng Lifei. Editor: Nerys Avery, John Liu
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zheng Lifei in Beijing at lzheng32@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net
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