Weather Extremes Causing More Variable USDA Data, Analysts Say
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Rain-delayed planting and hot, dry growing weather in the U.S. Midwest resulted in the government reducing its corn-crop estimates in 2010 and 2011 by the most for any two-year period since 1984.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s final production estimate last year was down 7.4 percent from its initial forecast in August, and this year the drop was 4.7 percent. Output was overstated by 25.5 percent in August 1983 and 0.2 percent a year later, USDA data show, after a period of adverse weather. In 2004 and 2005, the department understated the size of the crops by an average of 7.2 percent each year, as cool conditions and ample rains resulted in higher yields.