Libya’s Qaddafi Under Threat From Allied Military Forces
Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi
Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images
Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi appears on a TV screen during a nationwide address in February.
Libyan Leader Muammar Qaddafi appears on a TV screen during a nationwide address in February. Photographer: Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Christopher Davidson, author of "Power and Politics in the Persian Gulf Monarchies," talks about the unrest in Libya and Bahrain. He speaks with Andrea Catherwood on Bloomberg Television's "Last Word." (Source: Bloomberg)
Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi is facing a growing force of advanced Western aircraft and missiles intended to make him stop killing his opponents.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization members the U.K., France, Denmark, Spain and Canada, along with the U.S., have pledged planes to a mission to enforce the UN Security Council’s latest Libya resolution, according to government statements and press reports, and Qatar said it also would participate in the plan.
The U.K. is deploying Tornado and BAE Systems Plc Eurofighter Typhoon jets. France has the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, at the port of Toulon on the Mediterranean Sea, prepared to deploy, Laurent Teisseire, a spokesman for the defense ministry, said in a telephone interview.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, commenting on military deployments, told reporters in Paris, “We are ready but I can’t” provide a “precise timetable.”
Italy’s cabinet approved the use of as many as seven air bases for the operation. Italy will do all it can to enforce a United Nations no-fly zone over Libya “without any limits,” said Defense Minister Ignazio La Russa.
“Our forces will join an international operation to enforce the resolution if Qaddafi fails to comply” with the UN demand “that he ends attacks on civilians,” U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron told lawmakers in Parliament in London yesterday. “Britain will deploy Tornados and Typhoons as well as air-to air refueling and surveillance aircraft.”
Terms Not Negotiable
President Barack Obama said yesterday that “all attacks against civilians must stop” and Qaddafi must pull back his troops from cities where they have attacked anti-government forces.
“These terms are not negotiable,” Obama said yesterday in his first remarks since the UN vote March 17.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Washington that the U.S. and its allies are working to “operationalize” the UN Security Council resolution authorizing “all necessary measures,” including a no-fly zone, to end the violence and protect civilians in Libya.
Defining the Objectives
A no-fly zone over Libya could be set up in matter of days, as soon as political leaders define the objective of air interdiction and the rules of engagement, a retired senior U.S. Air Force general said.
“You can set it up in a few days, but it’s not going to be 24 hours a day,” retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Michael M. Dunn said in an interview this week. “If you want a comprehensive no-fly zone, it’d take a week.”
“This is an act of war,” said Dunn, noting that Libyans likely would be killed if the U.S. and allies destroy the country’s air defenses.
At least 200 planes would be needed to keep up 24-hour coverage of Libyan air space, though given the country’s limited air force, fewer aircraft might be effective in the short run, said Dunn, the president of the Air Force Association, a non- governmental group that promotes air power and the interests of former service members.
“You don’t have to cover the whole country, just the places where there are bases,” he said. “The objective is keeping Libya’s air force grounded, not taking it out.”
Missiles, Radar Threat
Libya has about 30 sites with surface-to-air (SAM) missiles, linked to 15 early warning radar, that pose a “significant threat” to foreign warplanes over or near Libyan airspace, according to information provided by the Pentagon.
The Pentagon, in a detailed, unclassified listing of Libya’s air defense and air force provided by U.S. Navy Commander Robert Mehal, said the majority of Qaddafi’s surface- to-air missile batteries are along the Mediterranean coast. The missiles include Russian-made SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, SA-6 and SA-13 systems, the Pentagon said.
The SA-5, at its longest range of 300 kilometers, provides Libya with “significant standoff capability,” said the statement. Libya has about 50 SA-6 missiles of the type used by Bosnian Serbs to shoot down U.S. Air Force Captain Scott O’Grady’s F-16 in 1995.
Libya has a limited air force, with about 80 percent of its aircraft “non-operational,” according to the Pentagon. Libyan pilot training levels and air combat tactics “have remained far inferior to those of U.S. pilots and well-trained Middle Eastern pilots,” such as those from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, according to the Pentagon.
Fighter Planes
Denmark has committed to sending six Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) F-16 fighter planes to help back the no-fly zone, Copenhagen- based newswire Ritzau reported, citing Defense Minister Gitte Lillelund Bech. Canada will deploy six CF-18 fighter jets, Postmedia News reported, citing unidentified people.
Qatar plans to take part in the mission to protect Libyan civilians under the UN resolution, the state-run Qatar News Agency.
The U.S. has not announced what, if any, of its military assets are being deployed beyond those previously announced.
The U.S. sent as many as 1,200 Marines and two Navy vessels, including the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, to the Mediterranean off the Libyan coast, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said March 1. The U.S. is also monitoring Libyan airspace.
At the time, Gates said the ships were sent to help with evacuations and for humanitarian relief. For offensive operations, the Kearsarge carries Harrier vertical-takeoff attack jets and AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters.
U.S. Destroyers, Submarines
Several destroyers and submarines in the Mediterranean are “available for tasking as required,” Admiral Gary Roughead, the Pentagon’s chief of naval operations, told a Senate subcommittee March 16. Submarines carry Raytheon Co. (RTN) tactical Tomahawk cruise missiles able to strike Libyan air defenses or other targets.
NATO leaders were meeting in Brussels yesterday to discuss the organization’s role. Germany said it supports the goals of the UN resolution but won’t participate in military action.
Imposing a no-fly zone over Libya may take “upwards of a week,” U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz told the Senate Armed Services Committee at a budget hearing March 17.
Schwartz dismissed as “overly optimistic” public estimates that setting up a zone might be accomplished in a few days. “But it is clear we could establish a no-fly zone if that was the mission,” he said.
Libyan Air Defenses
Libyan air defenses need to be knocked out first, said Rebecca Grant, director of the General Billy Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies, affiliated with the Air Force Association. Libya’s SA-6 missiles may not be well-maintained, she said in an interview earlier this week.
Dunn, of the Air Force Association, said one of the quickest options would be to start patrols over Libya with land- based Lockheed Martin F-22 fighters, since their radar-evading stealth technology makes them the only U.S. fighter able to effectively avoid the SA-6 missiles.
Another is to use a Navy carrier group, though it may not have the capacity to maintain a 24-hour presence over Libya.
Grant said airborne warning and control system planes, or AWACS, would fly over the Mediterranean Sea off Libya’s coast to monitor the airspace and coordinate the missions, while the U.S. could choose from a variety of attack aircraft, including F-22s and F-16s flying from U.S. and NATO airbases in Italy, Cyprus and elsewhere in the region, as well as the Navy’s carrier-based Boeing Co. (BA) F/A-18s.
“I think it’s possible for a no-fly zone to take the Libyan air force out of the picture. To what extent that affects the balance of power on the ground in Libya, that’s hard to say,” Grant said.
Air power can also be effective against ground forces, she said, as long as its objectives are clear.
“We’ve seen in Iraq and Kosovo that air power can be very effective against moving armor, but we have to know what the political objective is,” Grant said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Peter S. Green in New York at psgreen@bloomberg.net; Tony Capaccio in Washington at acapaccio@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net
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