Goldman Sachs Forecasts China's Sway in Commodity Market to Shrink in 2011

China’s sway in the global commodity market is likely to shrink next year as the U.S. and Europe assume bigger roles, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

“When we look into 2011, the story is not going to be China,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said today at a conference in London. “It is going to be Europe and the U.S.”

China is late in its cycle of economic growth, Currie said. “They are raising rates. They are battling inflation.” In Europe and the U.S., “it’s still early cycle,” he said.

Crude oil may reach $100 a barrel next year, Currie said. “That’s our forecast 12 months out,” he said.

Currie wants to be short on metals and long on energy at the start of 2011, he said. Later in the year, “as demand begins to push back up,” oil will “start again to look like the non- energy space,” he said.

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