Pre-Election Jobs Report May Stoke Voters’ Anger

When President Ronald Reagan led his Republican Party into the 1982 midterm elections during what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression, the fact that his party lost only 26 U.S. House seats was characterized as a victory. President Barack Obama may not be so lucky.

Reagan’s party also retained its 54-46 majority in the Senate. The 10.4 percent unemployment rate on the eve of that election was almost a full percentage point higher than now and rising. By contrast, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates that Obama’s Democrats this year will lose at least 40 seats in the House, costing the party control, and as many as nine of its 59 Senate seats.