Rousseff's Lead Narrows as Brazil's Green Party Gains Ahead of Oct. 3 Vote
Brazilian presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff saw her lead in voter opinion polls narrow to a one-month low, increasing the odds of a second-round ballot as voters defect to the Green Party.
Rousseff had 46 percent of voters’ support in a Datafolha poll conducted yesterday, down from 49 percent in a Sept. 21-22 poll, according to Folha de S.Paulo newspaper. Support for opposition candidate Jose Serra in the Oct. 3 election held at 28 percent, the newspaper said. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.
Backing for Green Party candidate Marina Silva rose to 14 percent from 13 percent, increasing the chances that the election will go to a second round, said Andre Cesar, founder of Brasilia-based political risk firm CAC Consultoria. The Sept. 16 resignation of Cabinet chief Erenice Guerra, who succeeded Rousseff, amid influence peddling allegations has eaten into the front-runner’s lead, he said.
“The political accusations of the last two weeks are hurting Dilma, while her campaign is still solid and President Lula’s popularity still high,” Cesar said. “Marina is the novelty of the election, and in the event of a second round she will be crucial.”
Rousseff’s support from people who expressed a preference for one of the candidates fell from 54 percent to 51 percent, according to the poll, the lowest since Aug. 20, the survey showed. A candidate must secure more than half of such so-called valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff four weeks later against the runner-up.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s approval rating rose to a record 78 percent this month, according to another Datafolha poll released Sept. 23, when 44 percent of voters surveyed by the institute said they would vote for a candidate backed by the president.
After stepping down, Guerra wrote to Lula to say that she was resigning to defend herself against accusations that she and her children sought payments from companies doing business with the government.
Guerra had previously served as Rousseff’s executive secretary since 2005.
The real was little changed at 1.7111 per dollar at 9:35 a.m. New York time.
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To contact the reporters on this story: Laura Price in London at lprice3@bloomberg.net Iuri Dantas in Brasilia at idantas@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Francisco Marcelino at mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
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