Don’t Bet on the End of China’s Growth Miracle

In 2011, China’s economy grew 9.2 percent, compared with 10.4 percent in 2010. In the second quarter of 2012 that growth rate had fallen further, to 7.6 percent. That’s set alarm bells ringing about the fate of the China miracle. Will the most successful and rapid decline in global poverty in the history of humanity shudder to a halt? Will the Asian Century be postponed, leaving the U.S., against the odds, as the undisputed top nation for the foreseeable future?

Don’t bet on it. There are still strong reasons to believe fast growth remains possible for China during the next two decades. And even if its growth were to collapse by 2 or 3 percentage points a year, the country will still get rich awfully fast.