Rising Treasury Yields Flash a Warning Sign
The underlying drivers could create headaches for policy makers and stock investors.
Caution required.
Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg
U.S. government bond yields have registered some notable moves in the first few days of 2021. Should they continue on their current pace, they risk causing headaches for both policy makers and stock investors because of their underlying drivers.
In less than two weeks, the Treasury yield curve has experienced a significant increase in yields in longer-dated bonds, or what is known in financial markets as a “bear steepening.” The yields on 10- and 30-year bonds have risen 20 basis points and 22 basis points, respectively, during this period. The spreads between those maturities and the two-year Treasury bill, on which Federal Reserve policy has a significant influence, have widened significantly — from 80 basis points to 98 basis points for the 10-year and from 152 basis points to 174 basis points for the 30-year.