Mervyn King, Columnist

The Biggest Covid Mistake Was Avoidable

False certainty convinces nobody and soon erodes trust.

December 15, 2020 at 6:30 AM UTC

Mervyn King was governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013. He is the Alan Greenspan Professor of Economics at NYU Stern School of Business and professor of law at NYU School of Law, and author (with John Kay) of “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers.”

How do you persuade the unpersuadable?
Photographer: Peter Summers/Getty Images

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No sensible person should envy politicians having to decide how best to combat Covid-19. Confronted with a new virus, errors and missteps were inevitable. But their biggest mistake was unnecessary — they pretended to know more than they did.

From the start, under relentless pressure from the media, governments expressed unwarranted certainty about the merits of their policies. Then, when circumstances suggested a change of course, they explained the new direction with equal certainty. After a few such reversals, trust declines. And trust in political leadership is crucial — especially now, with people beginning to be asked to get vaccinated.