For Gulf Arab States, China Is a Temporary Friend

At a time of American retrenchment from the Middle East, there’s a tendency in foreign-policy circles to overestimate China’s influence in the region, even an expectation that it will take on some of the hegemon’s historic responsibilities in the region. But Beijing’s interests there are economic and tend to be concentrated in the Gulf Arab states. What’s more, they have a very limited lifespan, tied to Chinese demographic trends that point to declining demand for hydrocarbons over the next two decades.

This period will coincide with a fiscal dilemma for the oil and gas exporters of the Gulf Cooperation Council, when their own demographic burden of an aging population reaches retirement, even as pension systems go underfunded and social welfare states are eroded. The dilemma is especially acute for states that are now building a significant sovereign debt repayment schedule for years to come.