Thailand Needs a Shakeup to Emerge From Covid War

Thailand has been playing by the rules and getting little benefit from obeying economic orthodoxy. A reshuffle among top policy makers after a string of departures, just as the nation emerges from coronavirus hibernation, is an opportunity to be bolder. The conservative nature of military-backed rule suggests tinkering is the more likely outcome than an embrace of bigger change.

Stagnating even before the pandemic hit, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy will shrink 8.1% this year, the central bank projects. That's four times the contraction the International Monetary Fund has penciled in for the region as a whole. Thailand has contained its outbreak, with no new local infections since May. Restrictions are slowly lifting. However, spillover effects from elsewhere are being felt. Industrial production fell by almost a quarter in May as the automotive sector hit the brakes. International arrivals have all but ceased, a heavy blow when tourism accounts for up to an estimated fifth of gross domestic product.