The Jobs Market Is Recovering, But We Might Blow It
A V-shaped recovery is possible if Congress approves more stimulus money now.
From humble beginnings….
Photographer: Christopher Dilts/Bloomberg
This morning's jobs report shows that the labor market is on the road to at least partial recovery. But we should learn from the policy mistakes of the Great Recession. If we're not smart about it, we could have years of consistent monthly jobs growth and still not get back to the level of employment we had in February. Getting back to full employment as soon as possible should be the driving focus as we think about fiscal stimulus. And for that to happen, the U.S. is going to need more of it.
The best way to think about this is to isolate temporary from permanent job losses in the employment data. The number of unemployed Americans fell by 2.3 million in May -- that's great news. But the composition of that a fall in temporary unemployment of 2.7 million while permanent unemployment rose by 400,000. That brought the unemployment rate to 13.3%, down from 14.7% the month before.