Michael R. Strain, Columnist

Good Economic News Is Coming and That’s Bad

A few rising indicators could obscure the urgent need for more government aid to the sinking coronavirus economy.

May 14, 2020 at 1:30 PM UTC

Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It).”

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Photographer: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

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There’s not much good news about the coronavirus pandemic. In the U.S., tens of thousands have died, hundreds of thousands have been infected and millions have lost jobs. Caseloads continue to rise in many states, and forecasters expect the economy to shrink at an historic rate in the current quarter as a consequence of stay-at-home orders intended to slow the spread of the virus.

But economic indicators change in peculiar ways. There’s reason to expect some to start pointing upward before long. That presents risks. If it leads economic policy makers to become complacent, the good news will be bad.