Liam Denning, Columnist

OPEC’s Capacity for Shock and Awe Is Limited

Another oil production cut would mainly be another signal of weakness.

March 4, 2020 at 4:20 PM UTC

Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy. A former banker, he edited the Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street column and wrote the Financial Times’s Lex column.

Not exactly awe-inspiring.
Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

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Even as stalwarts of the energy calendar such as CERAWeek bow out in the face of coronavirus, OPEC+ is doggedly convening this week in its Viennese petri dish. But in what may count as the most OPEC-plussy move ever, the organization waited until beyond the last minute, after many journalists had flown in already, to inform them they wouldn’t actually be allowed to enter the building.

OPEC+ is having a hard time responding to a black swan that threatens a repeat of the global financial crisis. IHS Markit, which shelved CERAWeek, now estimates oil demand in the first quarter will fall by 3.8 million barrels a day, sharper even than in early 2009. It now also expects 2020 will record an annual decline, an exceedingly rare occurrence.