Oil Was Sick Even Before Coronavirus Hit

Oil succumbed to the coronavirus this week because its immune system was compromised already. Amid headlines about quarantined Chinese cities and dozens of potential cases showing up in the U.S., Brent crude closed on Friday at $60 and change, its lowest since Halloween. This is all the more remarkable when you consider January has seen several geopolitical shocks stretching from Libya to Iraq.

Like the outbreak itself, oil’s problems began in December with a fever of its own. Relief at a sudden truce in the U.S.-China trade war sparked a rally taking oil from about $62 a barrel close to $70 by the end of that month. Speculators, in retreat for much of 2019, suddenly piled in again. Hedge funds’ net length in the major crude and product contracts surged from less than 600 million barrels-equivalent to almost 900 million between early December and early January. On a rolling four-week basis, December saw the sharpest increase in long positions in my entire data series going back to the start of 2011 (and net length increased at its fastest rate in more than two years).