, Columnist
Why 2020 Is Harder to Predict Than 2019 Was
Several important political, economic and cultural trends seem to be coming to an end.
What will the next jobs report show?
Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images North AmericaThis article is for subscribers only.
My main prediction for 2020, if it can be called a prediction, is trend exhaustion: For the first time in a long while, several important trends have come to an end.
What do I mean by that? Trends ebb and flow, of course, but at any given moment many of them embody one of two distinct states: momentum, or reversion to the mean. The first is a continuation of past progress, either upward or downward. The second is a movement back toward “normal,” however that may be defined.