Recession Alert Level Rises to DEFCON 3

In June 2009, General Electric Co. was worth about $140 billion and the U.S. economy and factory sector were digging out of a deep hole. A decade later, GE’s value has been cut nearly in half, and the economy is on the cusp of falling back into that hole.

The Institute for Supply Management today said its index of U.S. factory activity fell to its lowest level since June 2009, which also happens to mark the technical last month of the Great Recession. Manufacturing is just a small part of the U.S. economy, so this doesn’t mean it’s time to raise the Recession Alert level to DEFCON 1. Still, it probably means the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates yet again when it meets later this month, just weeks after suggesting it really didn’t want to, writes Brian Chappatta. The best-laid plans and all that.