Trump's Tariff Deal Comes Down to a Coin Flip
A German minister puts the chances of an EU-U.S. agreement at 50%. Others are even more optimistic, though the scope of a deal would be limited.
Heads or tails?
Photographer: /AFPDonald Trump has called the European Union a “foe” and has threatened to “tariff the hell” out of the 28-country bloc. So where should we put the chances of the U.S. president agreeing a trade deal with Brussels before he has to face reelection next year? In a surprising burst of cheerful optimism, Germany’s economy minister Peter Altmaier places them as high as 50%. He told reporters last week: “There is a mutual interest to avoid an escalation and to seek a reasonable solution.”
In fairness to Altmaier, 50% is only a coin toss. It’s a reasonable enough bet given the capricious nature of Trump (even if you also need to factor in just how tortuous the U.S. and China trade talks have been and the reluctance of EU leaders such as Emmanuel Macron to give any big concessions on cherished markets like agriculture). The EU negotiations began acrimoniously and might still fall apart acrimoniously, but in Trump-world you never can tell.