, Columnist
Those U.S. Jobs Revisions Are Hard to Ignore
The way payroll growth has been trending, the economy may be on the cusp of a recession, if not already in one.
Jobs are always plenty right before a recession hits.
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Employment is no doubt the best indicator of the recession I’ve been forecasting. The recent deceleration in U.S. jobs growth suggest that the business downturn may already be underway.
In terms of timeliness, payroll employment is superior among major economic statistics since it is monthly, not quarterly, and reported early, generally on the first Friday of the month for data covering the prior month. This also means that revisions are made relatively soon. And downward revisions are highly important at business cycle peaks.