China’s Likely to Lose a Tech Cold War
Even if its companies can achieve self-sufficiency, that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to compete globally.
Huawei execs know their limitations.
Photographer: Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images
It has become almost an article of faith that the U.S. and China are stumbling into a tech cold war -- a superpower slugfest for mastery of future technologies and, with them, the global economy. The U.S. administration’s China policy has been steadily evolving to fight this war, with steps aimed at keeping American know-how out of China’s hands.
In the end, however, this “war” may not feature many major battles. The narrative is based upon a questionable assumption -- that China will inevitably become an innovation powerhouse, with “national champions” primed to challenge Intel Corp., Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google for the commanding heights of world tech. In order for China to grow into such a threat, its companies will have to overcome significant hurdles, none of them especially easy to surmount.