The Biggest Threats to Trump’s Re-Election
The same economic indicators that spelled trouble for Hillary Clinton in 2016 aren’t looking great right now for the president.
Feeling good about the economy now.
Photographer: Adam Bettcher/Getty Images North AmericaThe expanding economy has been President Donald Trump’s strongest argument for re-election. There are signs, however, that the economy may be headed for a repeat of the slowdown that preceded the 2016 election — and which almost certainly contributed to the Democrats’ loss of the White House.
Prediction models that measure the eagerness of voters for change based on economic conditions and other factors were one of the few forecasting tools that consistently anticipated a Trump victory. Those models are based on the year-over-year growth in gross domestic product and the popularity of the incumbent rather than head-to-head polling.