Tech Can’t Drive the U.S. Economy Forever. What’s Next?
Probably government, led by Democrats wary of climate change and the rise of China.
The newest members of Congress are talking about climate change more boldly than most lawmakers have.
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
While investors have breathed a sigh of relief after the sharp equity rally to start the year, there's an unease about where the next source of American secular growth will come from. It's unrealistic to expect the "FANG" technology stocks to lead the economy forever. A few trends point instead to government as the big driver of economic growth in the 2020s.
The growth model of the 2010s has been unusual because of the headwinds from the financial crisis. The housing market, rather than being a growth driver for the U.S. economy as it has been in the past, showed only tepid improvement as it crawled its way back to normal. Public-sector employment, which tends to grow along with the economy at large, has been constrained both by budget realities at the state and local level and by political forces at the federal level, and will end up showing next to no net gain in employment this decade for the first time since government records began.