Noah Smith, Columnist

China’s Plan to End Its U.S. Trade Surplus Is a Red Herring

The country’s leaders probably aren’t willing to accept the risks or sacrifices.

How many would the U.S. have to sell?

Photographer: Matthew Cavanaugh/Getty Images North America
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There has been an unexpected development in the U.S.-China trade war. Chinese trade officials apparently offered a huge concession earlier this month: a promise to completely eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. by 2024. The offer was off the record, but it’s still a huge surprise, especially given the haphazard and clumsy way that President Donald Trump has chosen to fight his trade war.

Why is China making this proposal? One possibility is that the government is afraid that the trade war is having a chilling effect on the country’s economy. Consumption taxes have been falling, suggesting a slowdown is in progress: