Tunisia’s Best Hope for Economic Reform

Eight years after supplying the spark that lit the Arab Spring, Tunisia is again bracing for political upheaval in 2019. Prime Minister Youssef Chahed is openly scrapping with President Beji Caid Essebsi, who has in turn broken his four-year partnership with the powerful Islamist Ennahda party, the single largest party in parliament. As the head of a coalition government, Chahed is under increasing pressure from public-sector unions over salaries, and the sale of state-owned companies. Meanwhile, a new generation of jobless young people is stirring; some, inspired by France’s “gillets jaunes” protests, seek to create a “red jackets” movement.

None of this bodes well for the Tunisian economy. Chahed needs to build a new national constituency ahead of a likely run for the presidency next year. So he is unlikely to have the stomach for the strong medicine prescribed by the International Monetary Fund in exchange for a staggered $2.9 billion loan. Civil servants, whose salaries make up half of the national budget, and who are a powerful voting block, oppose many reforms.