At Last, Something About Brexit Everyone Can Agree On
Economists agree leaving will have a cost. If it came to a popular vote, Brexiters would have a hard time arguing the price is right.
Now compare her deal to the alternative.
Photographer: Liam McBurney/AFP/Getty Images
Who says economists can’t agree? In recent days, four reports evaluating the long-term economic impact of Brexit have been published, and they are remarkably consistent on at least two things. First, Theresa May’s deal will hurt the economy over the next decade or longer; and, second, exiting with no deal would be significantly worse.
Ironically, that relative economic clarity may muddy the political waters. It gives all sides ammunition to attack the prime minister’s unpopular deal. It’s not clear anyone listens to experts anymore, but these first attempts to judge the divorce on its economic merits deserve careful consideration by lawmakers. If members of parliament reject May’s deal on Dec. 11, they will have to pick a different course. Those decisions will not be made solely on the economic forecasts, but they will undoubtedly play a role. These studies make it much harder for Brexiters to claim that the best alternative is leaving without a deal.