Trump’s Iran Waivers Are Not the Concessions They Seem
By exploiting China’s diffidence and Europe’s differences, they are designed to undermine a united opposition to U.S. sanctions.
Beware of Trump bearing gifts for Greece… and Italy.
Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/BloombergIt should be welcome news for Iran that the Trump administration has granted eight countries Significant Reduction Exemptions (SREs) from U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic. These allow Iran to sustain oil exports at levels higher than many analysts had predicted when Trump first announced his withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May. Iran’s exports may remain above 1.1 million barrels per day.
At first glance, it would appear that the Trump administration’s decision is merely a recognition that suppressing Iranian exports too aggressively would drive up oil prices while also compromising American diplomatic relationships worldwide. But a closer examination of the waivers suggests that the Trump administration has deployed its concessions tactically. The inclusion of China, Italy, and Greece among the waiver recipients will complicate the politics around Iran’s oil exports, and undermine the broader international effort to defy the extraterritoriality of U.S. sanctions.