Polls Could Be Missing a GOP Surge. Here’s Why.
It certainly looks like Democrats will do well in the midterms. But this cycle presents some unusual risks for pollsters.
It’s different this time.
Photographer: Callaghan O'Hare/Bloomberg
If the polls are correct, we’re heading for either a good year for Democrats or a very good year for Democrats.
They’ll do well in House contests, probably getting the 23 seats they need for a majority and possibly a lot more. They’ll win a bunch of races for governor, and regain up to half the state legislature seats they’ve lost since 2008. They’ll likely fall short of a Senate majority, but only because the playing field is tilted against them: Democrats will win more than half the Senate elections this year, and the vast majority of votes cast, but that probably won’t be enough to make up for the Republican lead in seats that aren’t up for election.