Trump and Xi Are Destined to Divorce

In their own individual ways, the leaders of the U.S. and China are products of a moment when free-market capitalism imploded and Chinese-style “state capitalism” shored up the global economy. The 2008 financial crisis helped make both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. What observers don’t yet seem to appreciate is how difficult that makes it for them to resolve their spiraling trade war.

Financial markets wobble every time Trump imposes new tariffs on China, such as the 10 percent levy on $200 billion in imports he announced earlier this week, and then perk up on hopes of talks, as though this was a classic tit-for-tat trade war. It’s far from that. White House complaints about lopsided trade and Chinese theft of intellectual property are the pretext for a wider struggle. What we’re seeing are the opening stages of a strategic competition spurred by a sense of vulnerability in the U.S. and, in China, of national destiny.