Advice to Researchers: Admit What You Don’t Know

Research in science or medicine or economics is most valuable when it is unbiased, with researchers honestly reporting the limitations of their results. It’s a lot less valuable if it exaggerates what’s known, claiming excessive certainty or precision, in an effort to win an argument. That happens a lot, of course — researchers are only human.

But where does the problem occur most? For more than a decade, economist Charles Manski of Northwestern University been studying the issue, which he refers to as the “Lure of Incredible Certitude.” In a recent article, he suggests that it’s most prevalent in his own profession, economics. The trouble seems to stem from an intense desire to make strong claims about matters relevant to policy, even when there’s really no good evidence to back them up.