Why Voters Sometimes Choose Divided Government
There are no iron laws for midterm elections. But history provides some pretty strong precedents.
It might not be the economy that’s affecting his vote.
Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
For the past 158 years, the president’s party has lost seats in every single midterm election for the House of Representatives with only three exceptions: 1934, 1998 and 2002.1 It is for good reason that this tendency has been described as one of the few “iron laws” of American politics.
But the extent of the midterm losses can vary considerably. Why that’s the case is a conundrum that has obsessed political scientists for decades. In this year’s election, two very different forces are in play. On the one hand, many voters detest President Donald Trump in deeply personal terms. On the other, the economy is booming. Which will prove more decisive?