, Columnist
Recession Indicators Flash Nothing Very Definitive
Some economists predict a slump in 2019 or after. Then again, don’t bet on it.
OK, but does it mean anything?
Photographer: Barry Lewis/In Pictures/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
No one really knows how to predict recessions. Despite the massive financial returns that would accrue to anyone who had a good way of spotting downturns before they happen, macroeconomic forecasters are unable to do this with any reliability. And if professional forecasters can’t succeed in the high-stakes world of the financial industry, the chances of a pundit such as myself to see a recession coming seem fairly remote.
Still, it’s fun to speculate. With the extreme caveat that no one really knows what they’re doing when it comes to predicting the economy, let’s take a look at some potential signs of a recession in the offing.