Strong Labor Market? Dig a Bit Deeper

For the first time in four years, the U.S. Commerce Department may be on the verge of reporting a gross domestic product number that tops 4 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's widely followed GDPNow index, which aims to track growth in real time, indicates that the economy is likely expanding at a 4.49 percent annualized rate this quarter.

If that number ends up being in the ballpark, the implications would be profound. First, the odds would rise that the most optimistic growth forecasts for this year would be realized and the current economic expansion will likely extend to June 2019 to become the longest in U.S. history. Also, the midterm elections would probably not be the slam dunk for Democrats that political strategists currently envision. A strong economy could be a sufficient swing factor that prevents Democrats from winning back power in Congress.