Economists Should Stop Being So Certain
Weather forecasting offers a lesson on the value of self-doubt.
Hard to predict.
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The field of weather forecasting holds a lesson that economists might do well to heed: Stop being so sure of yourself.
The reputation of the economics profession suffered after the 2008 financial crisis, in large part because its practitioners were so overconfident. They have since been working to forge more realistic models of the economy, and re-examining some of their basic thinking about markets, trade and human behavior. In doing so, they might take some hints from weather scientists, who made a decision thirty years ago to be less, not more, precise. This has paradoxically made their forecasts more trustworthy.