The Death of First Class

At the beginning of November, Singapore Airlines Ltd. announced the world's most luxurious, fully-enclosed first-class seat. Passengers can expect the best: bedding (for two, if desired) embroidered by Lalique, dinner served on Wedgewood, a 32-inch HD screen, two bathrooms and a full-sized wardrobe. Just ten days later, Dubai-based Emirates Airline Ltd. sought to outdo the Southeast Asian giant with its own first-class suite featuring hardwood floors, mood lighting, kelp-infused moisturizing pajamas and design details inspired by the Mercedes-Benz S-Class.

The high-end one-upmanship would appear to herald a new golden age of luxury air travel, at least for those able to afford tickets that cost in excess of $10,000 per passenger. In fact, first-class cabins have been shrinking for two decades at least, under pressure from an increasingly competitive, price-focused global airline industry and the changing demographics of flying. Those trends are only set to accelerate. The latest luxury suites may look futuristic, but it's not clear that first class has a future at all.