, Columnist
10 Points About Forecasting and Why We Stink at It
Even though predictions are almost useless, we persist in making and listening to them.
Look deep.
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I recently pointed out an errant recession forecast made a year ago by a person who has been more or less been predicting an economic slump since 2011. I was hoping to spark a discussion of why forecasts are so counterproductive, and why no one should make investments based on them. Instead, a discussion of passive bulls mocking active bears broke out.
This was not what I intended.