OPEC's Game-Theory Dilemma

Over the last few years, producers belonging to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have had mixed success at winning the price-setting "game" for oil. To stand a better chance of regaining durable control, they must do a much better job of working together, and, importantly, they need to do so in a much broader and more institutionalized manner. Otherwise, they risk finding that the calming influence of a good July for the oil market, including a 9 percent price gain, could give way to continuing pressure from nontraditional suppliers, particularly in shale, that are benefiting from cost-cutting innovations.

To win the price-setting game, oil producers need to address two related issues: They must maintain prices at a relatively high level without losing more market share to nontraditional producers, and they need to retain unity amid geopolitical tensions and disparities in domestic economic and financial situations.