, Columnist
The Most Interesting Poll in Britain Right Now
YouGov is targeting the biggest problem in forecasting elections in the U.K. and the U.S.
Digging into the districts.
Image: YouGovThis article is for subscribers only.
The current mistrust for polls started in the U.K. when pollsters got the 2015 general election and the 2016 Brexit referendum wrong. Now, it might appear that, despite intensive soul-searching, British pollsters are still unreliable: Their numbers are all over the place, with Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party commanding a lead of anywhere between 3 and 12 percentage points. It's possible, however, that at least one polling organization has figured out how to capture voting intentions in a way that best fits the election system of the U.K. And this organization's model produces the least favorable results for May.