Mexico Blowback Should Dissuade Trump From Taking On China

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump made China and Mexico the principal villains responsible for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the Rust Belt. Through tweets and speeches, he criticized China for manipulating its currency to get unfair trade advantage. He said Mexico took advantage of the 22-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement to dump cheap goods.

In the first week after assuming office, Trump started to make good on his promise. When President Enrique Pena Nieto of Mexico refused to pay for the wall that Trump wants to build along the border, the U.S. suggested it might impose an import tariff to subsidize the project. In one version of the president’s thinking, a 20 percent levy would be imposed on imports from Mexico, which totaled $276 billion in the first 11 months of 2016, making any revenues from the tax amply sufficient to pay for the wall.