Narayana Kocherlakota, Columnist

Don't Complain That the Polls Were Wrong

Pollsters aren't supposed to be fortune tellers.

November 14, 2016 at 12:00 PM UTC

Narayana Kocherlakota is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at the University of Rochester and was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015.

Land of uncertainty.
Photographer: Darren Hauck/Getty Images

Provide news feedback or report an error

Site feedback:

Take our Survey

This article is for subscribers only.

One big complaint about the latest U.S. election is that “the polls were wrong.” It reveals a complete misunderstanding of what polls -- and statistical forecasts in general -- are supposed to do.

Many people confuse forecasts with fortune-telling. A fortune teller seeks to predict the future with certainty -- an endeavor that I view with suspicion. Statisticians use available information to help us make better decisions when we can’t be sure what will happen in the future. This is essential.