David Ader, Columnist

The Good News on Jobs Isn't All That Good

Initial claims for jobless benefits have tumbled to generational lows. But these numbers don't mean what they once did.

November 2, 2016 at 5:10 PM UTC

David Ader is the former chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence and held similar roles at CRT LLC and RBS/Greenwich Capital. He was the No. 1 ranked U.S. government bond strategist by Institutional Investor magazine for 11 years, and was No. 1 in technical analysis for five years.

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Photographer: Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg

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Are the initial jobless claims data as useful a tool as they once were in determining the degree of labor slack in the economy? Certainly, today’s very low levels are cited as one of the key proxies -- along with the unemployment rate -- that raises concerns about the tightening labor market and the potential for wage inflation.

I’m going to offer an alternative view to that.