Stiffer Sanctions on North Korea Won't Work

After Kim Jong Un's latest nuclear provocation, the U.S. has vowed to press for stringent new trade and financial sanctions against North Korea. When it comes to further isolating the Hermit Kingdom, however, there's good news and bad news. The truth is that sanctions haven't and aren't likely to work. The good news is that the bad news isn't so bad: Truly effective sanctions would probably make the problem posed by North Korea worse.

The inefficiency of sanctions should be clear by now. The first set of the international sanctions on North Korea was levied by the United Nations in 2006, after the regime's first nuclear test. They were further strengthened after subsequent tests in 2009 and 2013. The measures, however, have failed to have any impact on the North Korean economy. To the contrary, the clampdown roughly coincided with the beginning of North Korea's economic recovery, which had started few years earlier but became noticeable in 2006-07. Since then the country has enjoyed a resumption of economic growth -- around 1.5 percent annually, if you believe the pessimists, or 4 percent according to optimists.