Jonathan Bernstein, Columnist

Republican Race for 2016 Voters Starts Now

Social conservatives may split their votes among a handful of candidates. That will benefit Bush or Rubio.

October 5, 2015 at 2:01 PM UTC

Updated on

October 5, 2015 at 2:38 PM UTC

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio, he wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

Sunshine State dominates top tier.
Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Provide news feedback or report an error

Site feedback:

Take our Survey

This article is for subscribers only.

The Iowa caucuses are finally in sight -- less than four months away.1443736367175 Voters there and in New Hampshire and other early states are starting to be hit by campaign ads, phone calls and door-to-door contacts.

With ordinary citizens in those places just beginning to tune in, and voters elsewhere still months away from paying attention, it's too early for polling to predict much. But early October is a good time to stop and take a look at how the candidates are doing.